Diving Summary:
According to new research from residential electricity research group Pecan Street, the panels in as many as 48 million single-family homes in the United States will need to be upgraded to fully transition away from fossil fuels and use electricity for space and water heating, cooking, vehicle charging and other applications. At an average cost of $2,000 for an upgraded panel, that represents “a nearly $100 billion barrier to residential electrification,” the group said in a report released Aug. 23. It’s also an equity issue in the energy transition, with low-income customers often unable to make the investment. But utilities can play a role in helping make the upgrades possible through rebates or incentives, said Susan Russo, CEO of Pecan Street.
Insight into diving:
After Pecan Street released its report, Russo said the group heard about fossil fuel interests using its findings to portray electrification as too expensive. She later wrote a blog post calling that conclusion a misrepresentation and explaining that “we support full residential electrification.”
“It makes it difficult to do this kind of policy research,” Russo said of the fossil fuel industry’s response, adding that it can be “dangerous” to make cost estimates for electricity. But the new research’s conclusions stand: For the U.S. to fully electrify its residential sector, tens of millions of homes would need to upgrade their panels.
Between 35 million and 45 million homes in the United States could already be powered using existing panels, and by 2015, the group says about 25 percent of households were already fully electrified.
“The point of the report is that electrification is essential, especially with the Biden administration setting a national goal of electrifying all transportation,” Russo said. “Electric panels are part of that infrastructure, and that’s really a blind spot in the conversation about electrification.”
President Joe Biden wants to see half of new passenger vehicle sales in the United States be electric by 2030, and Congress is considering an infrastructure bill that includes billions of dollars for vehicle charging.
However, experts say most of the shipping will be done at home.
“Electric vehicles carry the highest potential load of any electrical load in a home,” the Pecan Street report noted. “This, combined with the coming wave of EV adoption, means they are likely to be one of the most common catalysts for upgrading electrical panels.”
Part of the solution, Russo said, is to ensure that electrification funding bills include residential solar as a primary item whenever possible. Regional policies, including utility programs or state and local government initiatives, should seek to create incentive structures and rebate programs that are nonregressive and “allow solar retrofits to be part of the cost calculation for compliance with electrification policies.”
Pecan Street says building and electrical codes also need to be updated to prepare for electrification. “We’ve found that these codes are inadequate at the national level,” Russo said. The group wants to see laws passed that require a minimum panel size of 200 amps for all new homes, which they say would allow for full electrification in the future.
The Pecan Street report noted that the cost difference between installing a 100-amp and 200-amp panel during construction “is only a few hundred dollars, but large builders can realize savings by installing the minimum-sized electrical panel on a large scale in all of their new buildings.” Currently, the minimum panel size for a home is determined by a calculation developed by the National Fire Protection Association and the National Electrical Code.
Help with upgrading the panels could come from utilities, said Scott Pecan Street, Pecan Street’s chief technology officer. But Henson said that despite the presence of such equipment on the customer side of the meter, the group’s research found no existing examples of utility incentives to upgrade panels. The Edison Electric Institute did not respond to an inquiry about such programs.
Panel upgrade programs could be structured similarly to weatherization programs for low-income homeowners, or incentives for panels could even be provided through existing weatherization programs. Utilities already offer rebates on air conditioners, efficient appliances and lighting upgrades, and “there could be an expansion to something like that,” Henson said, with it structured in a way that prioritizes low- and moderate-income housing.
